Political Regression as Organizational Emotional Function: A Developmental Model of Polarization
Abstract
Classical psychoanalytic political theory described projection, aggression, and mass regression as drivers of political conflict, yet lacked empirical operationalization. This article introduces the Political Regression Index (PRI), a psychodynamically grounded, measurable model linking aggression activation, institutional rigidity, and integrative capacity within a Five-Stage Emotional Civilization framework (Fear–Dependency → Empathy–Integration). Drawing on V-Dem country–year data, the PRI formalizes political regression as the interaction of aggression and defensive closure relative to deliberative integration. The model generates falsifiable predictions regarding election-cycle polarization, crisis escalation, and institutional buffering. Unlike existing affective polarization metrics, which primarily assess attitudinal hostility, PRI conceptualizes polarization as a fluctuation in collective emotional organization embedded in institutional structure. Empirically, the index is designed to converge with societal polarization measures while inversely tracking deliberative and liberal democracy indices. The framework advances a developmental interpretation of democratic stability, reframing polarization not simply as ideological divergence but as regression along a measurable emotional–organizational continuum. This approach integrates psychoanalytic theory with contemporary political science, offering a bridge between unconscious political processes and institutional dynamics.